Evidence and Analysis

Multiple pathways can deliver nature-positive futures

The BIONEXT modelling shows that Europe can achieve substantial progress towards sustainability through different, but equally plausible, pathways of transformation. Although the pathways differ in their underlying values and policy approaches, all deliver improvements across biodiversity, food, water, energy, transport, climate and health by 2050. The most striking finding is the consistency of outcomes despite contrasting mechanisms. All pathways reduce greenhouse gas emissions by more than 50%, substantially decrease reliance on fossil fuels, lower water withdrawals, improve biodiversity indicators and increase human wellbeing. This suggests that policymakers have flexibility in designing transition strategies provided actions address key drivers of environmental degradation and are coordinated across sectors

Different mechanisms produce different strengths

The three pathways achieve similar sustainability outcomes through different combinations of behavioural change, governance reform, land-use policies and technological innovation:

• Dòigh Nàdair: The way of nature (Nature as Culture) relies on a cultural shift toward more reciprocal connections with nature through lifestyle change, local governance and agroecology. Reduced meat consumption, shorter supply chains, community stewardship and lower transport demand reduce pressures across the nexus while supporting multifunctional landscapes that benefit both people and nature.

• NaturAll (Nature for Nature) prioritises ecological protection and sufficiency. Protected areas expand to 50% of European land alongside major reductions in resource consumption and mobility demand. This pathway delivers the strongest reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, fossil fuel use and transport emissions, while achieving the largest gains in species conservation.

• Return to Nature (Nature for Society) uses technological innovation, circular economy approaches and nature-based solutions to decouple resource use from wellbeing. Higher agricultural productivity, renewable energy deployment and improved efficiency free land for restoration and produce the largest gains in biodiversity outside protected areas

Shared leverage points create system-wide benefits

Several interventions consistently generate benefits across multiple sectors. First, reducing livestock production and meat consumption lowers agricultural emissions, irrigation demand and land pressures, creating benefits for biodiversity, water security, climate mitigation and public health.

Second, decarbonising energy and transport systems through renewable energy, electrification, active travel and reduced aviation lowers greenhouse gas emissions while improving air quality and health outcomes.

Third, improvements in water efficiency and reductions in water demand substantially improve ecosystem condition and human wellbeing. Across all pathways, water withdrawals fall by approximately one-third to one-half by 2050 through combinations of behavioural change, technological innovation and agricultural transformation.

Together, these findings show that the greatest sustainability gains arise from addressing common drivers of environmental degradation, including livestock-intensive food systems, fossil fuel use, inefficient resource consumption and growing demands on land and water. Because these drivers affect multiple sectors simultaneously, integrated policies can generate benefits across biodiversity, food, water, energy, transport, climate and health.

Trade-offs remain important

Although synergies dominate across all pathways, important trade-offs remain.

Trade-offs should not be seen as reasons to delay transformative action. Rather, the modelling shows that trade-offs are inherent to sustainability transitions and need to be recognised and managed explicitly to make strategic decisions. A nexus approach helps policymakers identify where pressures may shift between sectors, places or social groups, enabling them to anticipate impacts, design compensatory measures and maximise overall benefits. The challenge is therefore not to eliminate trade-offs entirely, but to manage them transparently and fairly while maintaining progress towards biodiversity, climate, sustainability, and wellbeing goals.

One key challenge concerns land-use. Expanding protected areas and restoring ecosystems can restrict land available for agriculture, potentially increasing pressure on remaining productive land. The NaturAll pathway illustrates this clearly, as biodiversity gains from strict protection are accompanied by greater agricultural intensification outside protected areas.

Renewable energy expansion also creates trade-offs. While all pathways dramatically reduce fossil-fuel dependence, renewable infrastructure requires land and can create local biodiversity pressures if poorly planned. Integrated spatial planning is therefore essential to minimise conflicts between biodiversity conservation, food production and renewable energy deployment.

Each pathway also presents different governance challenges. Behaviourally driven transitions depend on public acceptance and cultural change, while technology-led pathways require innovation, investment and institutional capacity. Conservation-focused approaches may require measures to ensure social equity and public support.

Why the nexus perspective matters

Sustainability outcomes depend not only on what actions are implemented but also on how they interact. Food systems actions affect biodiversity, climate and water resources; energy actions influence land-use change; transport actions shape both health and environmental outcomes. A nexus perspective therefore provides a stronger basis for policymaking than traditional sector-based approaches. By identifying interactions, synergies and trade-offs in advance, policymakers can design integrated strategies that maximise co-benefits, reduce unintended consequences and improve the likelihood of achieving long-term sustainability goals. Nature-positive futures can deliver benefits for both biodiversity and society, enhancing wellbeing, resilience and quality of life across Europe.